"More Likely Than Not" as a Probability-Judgment Marker
10 exercises — how "more likely than not" frames a probability judgment above 50% without claiming certainty.
Quick reference
More likely than not: frames a probability judgment above 50%, short of certainty
Fixed form: "than," not "then" — a common spelling trap
Close synonym: "probably"
Contrast: unlike "definitely," it doesn't claim full certainty
Register: neutral-to-formal, common in spoken incident calls and written risk assessments
0 / 25 completed
1 / 25
A postmortem draft reads: "The root cause is ___ a stale cache entry, though we haven't fully confirmed it yet." Which phrase best signals that something is probable but not certain?
More likely than not is a fixed idiom meaning "probably true" (over 50% likely). It uses "than," not "then," and needs no extra verb tacked on. "More likely then not" misspells the comparative "than," and the other options add unnecessary words.
2 / 25
Which sentence uses "more likely than not" correctly?
"More likely than not, the outage was triggered by the config change we shipped an hour earlier" correctly frames a probable, but not certain, explanation. It cannot introduce a confident future plan, an instruction, or a scheduled event.
3 / 25
Fill the blank: "If the deploy fails again with the same stack trace, it's ___ an environment variable that's missing in production but present in staging."
More likely than not has a fixed word order: "more" + "likely" + "than" + "not." The other options scramble this into invalid, meaningless sequences.
4 / 25
Which pair correctly distinguishes "more likely than not" from "definitely"?
"More likely than not, the leak is in the connection pool" is a probability judgment, not a guarantee. "Definitely the leak is in the connection pool" claims certainty the speaker may not actually have.
5 / 25
A capacity-planning doc reads: "Given current growth rates, we will ___ need to reshard the database within the next two quarters." Which best completes the sentence?
More likely than not is the correct, fixed form. The other options scramble the required word order into invalid phrases.
6 / 25
Which sentence contains an error in the use of "more likely than not"?
"More likely than not that the QA team suspects, the regression was introduced last sprint" incorrectly attaches a relative clause to the fixed idiom, which cannot be modified this way. The other three sentences use it correctly as a standalone probability marker.
7 / 25
Choose the sentence where "more likely than not" is best replaced by "probably" without changing the meaning.
"Probably, this bug has existed since the initial implementation, not since the recent refactor" preserves the meaning exactly. The other options misuse the phrase as an urgency marker, an unrelated construction, or a pairing with a specific future date.
8 / 25
A risk assessment states: "If we don't add retries, transient network errors will ___ cause visible failures for end users." Which best fits?
More likely than not is the correct, standard form. Option A misspells "than" as "then." Option B inserts an incorrect comma. Option D is a homophone error, swapping "not" for "knot."
9 / 25
Which register note about "more likely than not" is accurate?
"More likely than not" works equally well in a spoken incident call ("More likely than not, it's the same root cause as last time") and a written risk assessment. It always signals a probability judgment above 50%, without claiming certainty.
10 / 25
Which sentence best demonstrates "more likely than not" framing a probable, but not certain, technical explanation?
"...the deployment is more likely than not the cause of the spike in error rates, though we're still waiting on the full trace data to confirm" is the textbook use: a probability judgment paired with an acknowledgment that full confirmation is pending. The other options misuse the phrase as a command intensifier, insert it awkwardly mid-clause, or pair it incorrectly with a future date.
11 / 25
During a code review of the new authentication service, Sarah comments: 'I'm unsure about this initial implementation, but more likely than not, we'll need to refactor it after the first release. It feels like a reasonable assumption based on past projects.' Which phrase best captures Sarah's judgment?
Sarah uses 'more likely than not' to express a probabilistic assessment. It acknowledges uncertainty ('unsure') while suggesting a high probability of future action. The incorrect options either imply absolute certainty or dismiss the potential for change without considering evidence.
12 / 25
You're drafting a Slack message to your team about a recent performance issue with the API endpoint. You write: 'More likely than not, this is caused by increased load on the database server.' Which sentence best demonstrates correct usage of this phrase?
'More likely than not' indicates a higher probability without claiming absolute certainty. Option 2 accurately reflects this nuance – acknowledging the possibility of other causes while prioritizing database investigation. The other options either imply definitive conclusions or express complete uncertainty.
13 / 25
In a PR description for a new feature, David writes: 'If the build fails with this error code, it's more likely than not that we've introduced a regression in the core logic.' Which of the following best explains David's intent?
David uses 'more likely than not' to frame the build failure as a significant signal of concern. It acknowledges that a failed build doesn't *guarantee* a regression but suggests it is highly probable. Option 3 and 4 misinterpret the phrase's meaning entirely.
14 / 25
A senior engineer, Maria, says to a junior developer: 'Based on my experience with similar systems, it's more likely than not that this microservice will become a bottleneck as the user base grows.' What is the primary difference between Maria's statement and saying 'it's definitely a bottleneck'?
The key distinction lies in acknowledging uncertainty. 'More likely than not' allows for the possibility of addressing the bottleneck (e.g., scaling resources) while 'definitely' suggests an immutable and unchangeable situation. This nuance is crucial for effective problem-solving.
15 / 25
During a standup meeting, Alex says: 'We're seeing intermittent errors with the payment gateway integration. More likely than not, it's related to network latency spikes.' What does Alex mean in this context?
Alex uses 'more likely than not' to express a strong probability based on observation, while still recognizing that other contributing causes are possible. This approach encourages investigation and potential solutions without prematurely concluding that network latency *is* the sole cause.
16 / 25
During a code review of the new authentication service, Sarah comments: 'I'm unsure about this initial implementation, but more likely than not, we'll need to refactor it after the first release. It feels like a reasonable assumption based on past projects.' Which phrase best captures Sarah's judgment?
Sarah uses 'more likely than not' to express a probabilistic assessment. It acknowledges uncertainty ('unsure') while suggesting a high probability of future action. The incorrect options either imply absolute certainty or dismiss the potential for change without considering evidence.
17 / 25
You're drafting a Slack message to your team about a recent performance issue with the API endpoint. You write: 'More likely than not, this is caused by increased load on the database server.' Which sentence best demonstrates correct usage of this phrase?
'More likely than not' indicates a higher probability without claiming absolute certainty. Option 2 accurately reflects this nuance – acknowledging the possibility of other causes while prioritizing database investigation. The other options either imply definitive conclusions or express complete uncertainty.
18 / 25
In a PR description for a new feature, David writes: 'If the build fails with this error code, it's more likely than not that we've introduced a regression in the core logic.' Which of the following best explains David's intent?
David uses 'more likely than not' to frame the build failure as a significant signal of concern. It acknowledges that a failed build doesn't *guarantee* a regression but suggests it is highly probable. Option 3 and 4 misinterpret the phrase's meaning entirely.
19 / 25
A senior engineer, Maria, says to a junior developer: 'Based on my experience with similar systems, it's more likely than not that this microservice will become a bottleneck as the user base grows.' What is the primary difference between Maria's statement and saying 'it's definitely a bottleneck'?
The key distinction lies in acknowledging uncertainty. 'More likely than not' allows for the possibility of addressing the bottleneck (e.g., scaling resources) while 'definitely' suggests an immutable and unchangeable situation. This nuance is crucial for effective problem-solving.
20 / 25
During a standup meeting, Alex says: 'We're seeing intermittent errors with the payment gateway integration. More likely than not, it's related to network latency spikes.' What does Alex mean in this context?
Alex uses 'more likely than not' to express a strong probability based on observation, while still recognizing that other contributing causes are possible. This approach encourages investigation and potential solutions without prematurely concluding that network latency *is* the sole cause.
21 / 25
During a code review of the new authentication service, Sarah comments: 'I'm unsure about this initial implementation, but more likely than not, we'll need to refactor it after the first release. It feels like a reasonable assumption based on past projects.' Which phrase best captures Sarah's judgment?
Sarah uses 'more likely than not' to express a probabilistic assessment. It acknowledges uncertainty ('unsure') while suggesting a high probability of future action. The incorrect options either imply absolute certainty or dismiss the potential for change without considering evidence.
22 / 25
You're drafting a Slack message to your team about a recent performance issue with the API endpoint. You write: 'More likely than not, this is caused by increased load on the database server.' Which sentence best demonstrates correct usage of this phrase?
'More likely than not' indicates a higher probability without claiming absolute certainty. Option 2 accurately reflects this nuance – acknowledging the possibility of other causes while prioritizing database investigation. The other options either imply definitive conclusions or express complete uncertainty.
23 / 25
In a PR description for a new feature, David writes: 'If the build fails with this error code, it's more likely than not that we've introduced a regression in the core logic.' Which of the following best explains David's intent?
David uses 'more likely than not' to frame the build failure as a significant signal of concern. It acknowledges that a failed build doesn't *guarantee* a regression but suggests it is highly probable. Option 3 and 4 misinterpret the phrase's meaning entirely.
24 / 25
A senior engineer, Maria, says to a junior developer: 'Based on my experience with similar systems, it's more likely than not that this microservice will become a bottleneck as the user base grows.' What is the primary difference between Maria's statement and saying 'it's definitely a bottleneck'?
The key distinction lies in acknowledging uncertainty. 'More likely than not' allows for the possibility of addressing the bottleneck (e.g., scaling resources) while 'definitely' suggests an immutable and unchangeable situation. This nuance is crucial for effective problem-solving.
25 / 25
During a standup meeting, Alex says: 'We're seeing intermittent errors with the payment gateway integration. More likely than not, it's related to network latency spikes.' What does Alex mean in this context?
Alex uses 'more likely than not' to express a strong probability based on observation, while still recognizing that other contributing causes are possible. This approach encourages investigation and potential solutions without prematurely concluding that network latency *is* the sole cause.
What will I practise in ""More Likely Than Not" as a Probability-Judgment Marker — IT English Grammar"?
Practice using "more likely than not" to frame a probable, but not certain, technical explanation in postmortems and risk assessments.
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This module has 25 multiple-choice exercises, each with instant feedback and a full explanation of the correct answer.
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Every exercise is written by the CoderSlingo team, drawing on real workplace English used in IT roles, then reviewed for accuracy and clarity.